Dated: 17 May 2011
Commenting on the latest inflation figures, Graeme Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said:
“In the words of the Prime Minister, ‘calm down dear’. The increase in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is not as bad as it looks. Yes, core inflation has accelerated sharply and the headline rate is likely to rise even further to 5 per cent or more over the coming months, but there’s no need to panic. We still believe inflation will fall sharply next year.
“The real concern would be if the current inflation increase triggered an upward wage-price spiral, but there is no evidence of this. Raising interest rates now would risk a double-dip recession and sharp swing from inflation towards deflation in 2012-13. We shouldn’t forget that broad money supply growth is signalling a very strong risk of deflation in the medium term. We’re worrying too much about today when we should be thinking of tomorrow.”
